What’s going to happen next?

Opinion is divided over what lies in store. Some were already claiming to see the ‘green shoots’ of recovery as early as spring 2009, while others fear that the problems are much more deep-seated, and that the recession will last many years. Some economic analysts are proclaiming the end of the ‘turbocapitalism’ of the last 20 years—seeing a continued role for governments in global finance and tighter control of credit and leveraged risk in the future—while others see the credit crunch as a turning point in the balance of world power, as Western economic hegemony ends and the pendulum swings decisively over to China and South Asia.

‘When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.’

Citigroup Chief Executive CHUCK PRINCE, July 2007, a few weeks before the bank was crippled by sub-prime mortgage exposure that led to it losing $32 billion